Doll’s Deliberations

Volatility to continue in both directions

The recent rise in bond yields and further unwinding of U.S. rate cut expectations have been sufficient to halt the post-October risk rally.

04/29/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Stocks turn sloppy and are likely to continue to consolidate/correct

Equity markets have stumbled modestly because of yet another pivot by Fed Chair Powell.

04/22/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

20 Key Points

With much to highlight, we decided to expand our key points from 10 to 20 this week and forgo the essay.

04/15/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

No Recession So Far

Why has recession not happened?

04/01/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Double-Digit Earnings Growth and Multiple Fed Rate Cuts Seem Incompatible

The Fed met and, as expected, did not move rates, but seems determined to cut rates with the timing getting pushed further into the future.

03/25/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Becoming More Concerned

Last week’s inflation reports evidence that the glide path for a return to 2% inflation is not unfolding the ways the bulls and the Fed have been anticipating.

03/18/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Priced for Perfection?

Equities have benefitted from investors upgrading their economic and earnings growth estimates after the consensus was too cautious at the start of the year.

03/11/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

Rate Cuts Continue to Be Pushed Back in Time

Capital markets have moved with expectations regarding the Fed swinging from undue fears of excessive tightening in 2022 and most of 2023 to over optimism about rate cuts going forward, although expectations have receded significantly since mid-January.

03/04/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

Will Excesses Lead to a Turn?

The recession camp has far fewer adherents than a year ago, thinned out by the surge in U.S. growth, a revival in global trade and, more recently, signs of a trough in the global PMI manufacturing index.

02/26/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

Signs of Economic Slowing and Sticky Inflation are Emerging

The high-risk, expensive bull market, is attempting to continue.

02/20/2024

Commentary

The recent rise in bond yields and further unwinding of U.S. rate cut expectations have been sufficient to halt the post-October risk rally.

Equity markets have stumbled modestly because of yet another pivot by Fed Chair Powell.

With much to highlight, we decided to expand our key points from 10 to 20 this week and forgo the essay.

Why has recession not happened?

The Fed met and, as expected, did not move rates, but seems determined to cut rates with the timing getting pushed further into the future.

Last week’s inflation reports evidence that the glide path for a return to 2% inflation is not unfolding the ways the bulls and the Fed have been anticipating.

Equities have benefitted from investors upgrading their economic and earnings growth estimates after the consensus was too cautious at the start of the year.

Capital markets have moved with expectations regarding the Fed swinging from undue fears of excessive tightening in 2022 and most of 2023 to over optimism about rate cuts going forward, although expectations have receded significantly since mid-January.

The recession camp has far fewer adherents than a year ago, thinned out by the surge in U.S. growth, a revival in global trade and, more recently, signs of a trough in the global PMI manufacturing index.

The high-risk, expensive bull market, is attempting to continue.

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