Doll’s Deliberations

All eyes on the election

These dynamics have led the financial markets to coalesce around the notion that the two most likely outcomes of the election are either a Republican sweep or a Harris win with a split government.

10/28/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

The high-risk, momentum-driven bull market continues

After slowing for several months, macro conditions have improved relative to expectations this fall as the S&P 500 has resumed its steady upward march.

10/21/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Will sticky inflation and a weakening labor market eventually trouble equities?

Equity markets have generally moved higher in the absence of notable bad news, underscoring that the path of least resistance for stock prices is up.

10/14/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Will it be a hard landing, a soft landing, a bumpy landing, or no landing?

While 2Q24 was characterized by narrow market leadership and a hawkish repricing of Fed rate-cut expectations, 3Q saw solid performance from a wider spectrum of companies and increasing expectations for rate cuts in 2024.

10/07/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Will the desired soft landing materialize?

The global easing cycle is in full swing, with China adding to the impetus to boost asset prices and support economic growth following the Fed’s sizable rate cut.

09/30/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Is the Fed taking away the punch bowl or just priming the pump for more asset inflation?

The Fed surprised some by beginning the rate cut cycle with a 50 bp cut.

09/23/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

The rate rise cycle begins

Central banks are slowly reversing course and cutting policy rates, albeit with varying degrees of fundamental support.

09/16/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Finally, a slowing economy is noticed

Stocks have been roughed up as investors finally recognize that economic growth is slowing.

09/09/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

The economy and markets keep on trucking

The global economic expansion continues, slightly decelerating in the U.S. and slightly improving elsewhere.

09/03/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Fed rate cut expectations buoy markets

The last 12 months’ payroll revision was -818,000 jobs.

08/26/2024 5 min read

Commentary

These dynamics have led the financial markets to coalesce around the notion that the two most likely outcomes of the election are either a Republican sweep or a Harris win with a split government.

After slowing for several months, macro conditions have improved relative to expectations this fall as the S&P 500 has resumed its steady upward march.

Equity markets have generally moved higher in the absence of notable bad news, underscoring that the path of least resistance for stock prices is up.

While 2Q24 was characterized by narrow market leadership and a hawkish repricing of Fed rate-cut expectations, 3Q saw solid performance from a wider spectrum of companies and increasing expectations for rate cuts in 2024.

The global easing cycle is in full swing, with China adding to the impetus to boost asset prices and support economic growth following the Fed’s sizable rate cut.

The Fed surprised some by beginning the rate cut cycle with a 50 bp cut.

Central banks are slowly reversing course and cutting policy rates, albeit with varying degrees of fundamental support.

Stocks have been roughed up as investors finally recognize that economic growth is slowing.

The global economic expansion continues, slightly decelerating in the U.S. and slightly improving elsewhere.

The last 12 months’ payroll revision was -818,000 jobs.

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