Caution/Defensiveness Prevails
Wednesday marks the next date in the ongoing U.S.-led trade war, with reciprocal tariffs due to be announced as a follow-on to last week’s 25% tariff on autos.
03/31/2025
Doll’s Deliberations
From the mind of industry veteran Bob Doll comes Doll's Deliberations®, a weekly investment commentary.
Commentary
Slowing Growth + Stubborn Inflation = Defensive Positioning
The volatile risk-off backdrop has continued. Economic concerns have surged with the U.S.-led trade war moving into high gear.
03/24/2025
Bob Doll’s Special Market Commentary
U.S. growth fears have mounted sharply in recent weeks, driven by the Trump Administration’s sizeable enacted and proposed tariffs, its focus on reducing federal government spending, and an overall elevated sense of policy uncertainty/unpredictability.
03/17/2025
Confidence Down + Uncertainty Up = Down Markets
U.S. growth fears have mounted sharply in recent weeks, driven by the Trump Administration’s sizeable enacted and proposed tariffs, its focus on reducing federal government spending, and an overall elevated sense of policy uncertainty/unpredictability.
03/17/2025
The Dark Clouds Continue to Multiply
Aggressive shifts in U.S. economic policy are undermining investors’ prior pro-growth expectations of the second Trump Administration.
03/10/2025
Tariff Headwinds and a Growth Scare Rock Risk Assets
Global financial markets have hit a rough patch as the cumulative impact of President Trump’s trade and related economic threats are fueling concerns that he will diverge from the pro-growth script that he initially followed during his first term.
03/03/2025
The Capital Markets Path Remains Murky
Global financial markets continue to be whipsawed by shifting threats and demands from the new U.S. administration. Generally, investors are still downplaying the threats and focusing on what is still a choppy, but modestly positive, risk-on backdrop. Monetary conditions are not restrictive in the major developed market economies, and policy rates are still being lowered in some of the smaller economies. Global economic activity is on track to improve.
02/24/2025
The Tariff Discussion Continues
The Fed’s primary stated goal is to return inflation to 2%. It is failing, and with hindsight, the 100 basis points (bps) in rate cuts since September were a mistake. U.S. monetary conditions were never restrictive, despite Chair Powell’s repeated assertions. Rate cuts have only further stoked asset price inflation and provided additional stimulus to an already warm economy, putting a floor under inflation.
02/18/2025
Tariff Risks Dampen an Otherwise Decent Economy and Earnings
U.S. tariff policy, if implemented, threatens to upend the pro-growth investment climate. Even tariff proponents acknowledge that the application of tariffs could cause short-term pain.
02/10/2025
AI Competition and a Possible Trade War Keep Things Interesting
When a stock is assumed to have a monopoly and enjoys abnormally high profit margins (e.g., Nvidia), the impact of something challenging that view can be huge, especially if the stock is priced for near perfection. With the discovery of DeepSeek and the jolt it had on the established AI leaders, we got a taste of that phenomenon last week.
02/03/2025