Doll’s Deliberations

Are we approaching an inflection point?

Just when it seemed the macro backdrop was brightening and the global economic expansion might gain traction, the Middle East erupted and triggered a spike in oil prices. Is it time to rethink one's portfolio strategy?

06/23/2025

Doll’s Deliberations

Tariffs, Economic Uncertainties, and Now, Higher Oil Prices

The near-term economic and inflation outlook is still clouded by tariff increases and uncertainty regarding the ultimate endpoint of U.S. trade policy.

06/16/2025

Doll’s Deliberations

Stocks supported by a somewhat resilient economy, but could be challenged by tariff-driven earnings disappointments or rising interest rates

Equities have recovered most of their tariff-driven losses from earlier this year, when markets abruptly went from overbought to oversold (to now neutral).

06/09/2025

Doll’s Deliberations

Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

As the dust settles after a volatile first five months of the year, investors are biased to buy risk assets. Record or near-record highs are frequently recorded in a wide range of markets, including equities, credit, real estate, gold, etc. Clearly, there is no shortage of investable liquidity.

06/02/2025

Doll’s Deliberations

The Bond Vigilantes Are Awake!

The key pressures on asset markets are shifting back to those that existed prior to the tariff war. The risk of recession has receded, which will reinforce the stickiness of inflation. There is a growing threat of higher bond yields and the attendant downward pressure on equity valuations.

05/27/2025

Doll’s Deliberations

Rising Equities Reflect Easing Tariff Tensions

Trump has pulled back considerably from claiming he will pursue trade tariffs regardless of the near-run economic damage. The main takeaway is that there are limits to how far U.S. trade policy can be pushed when Treasury and equity markets riot (as well as increasing complaints from the business sector).

05/19/2025

Doll’s Deliberations

Can Reduced Trade Tensions Avert a Recession?

Some calm has returned to global financial markets after a wild past few months. There are rising hopes that the U.S. will not push the global economy over the cliff by pursuing its global trade war at all costs.

05/12/2025

Doll’s Deliberations

Does Market Recovery Indicate Problems Are Solved?

The global economic and market outlook remains highly uncertain, although investors have breathed a sigh of relief that U.S. trade tariffs will be less severe than initially feared.

05/05/2025

Doll’s Deliberations

A Pause That Refreshes?

After nonstop negative policy actions or threats to the economy, President Trump eased back on two major initiatives last week, providing relief to beleaguered bond and stock markets.

04/28/2025

Doll’s Deliberations

An Attempt to Define the Current State of Play

Investors and businesses came into this year with misplaced optimism that President Trump would promote pro-growth policies and fuel higher risk asset prices. In a matter of months, Trump has instead effectively sidelined the U.S. exceptionalism theme, triggered a significant stock market correction, severely impaired what was a strong U.S. economy, and is approaching the brink of a “crisis of confidence.”

04/21/2025

Commentary

Just when it seemed the macro backdrop was brightening and the global economic expansion might gain traction, the Middle East erupted and triggered a spike in oil prices. Is it time to rethink one's portfolio strategy?

The near-term economic and inflation outlook is still clouded by tariff increases and uncertainty regarding the ultimate endpoint of U.S. trade policy.

Equities have recovered most of their tariff-driven losses from earlier this year, when markets abruptly went from overbought to oversold (to now neutral).

As the dust settles after a volatile first five months of the year, investors are biased to buy risk assets. Record or near-record highs are frequently recorded in a wide range of markets, including equities, credit, real estate, gold, etc. Clearly, there is no shortage of investable liquidity.

The key pressures on asset markets are shifting back to those that existed prior to the tariff war. The risk of recession has receded, which will reinforce the stickiness of inflation. There is a growing threat of higher bond yields and the attendant downward pressure on equity valuations.

Some calm has returned to global financial markets after a wild past few months. There are rising hopes that the U.S. will not push the global economy over the cliff by pursuing its global trade war at all costs.

The global economic and market outlook remains highly uncertain, although investors have breathed a sigh of relief that U.S. trade tariffs will be less severe than initially feared.

After nonstop negative policy actions or threats to the economy, President Trump eased back on two major initiatives last week, providing relief to beleaguered bond and stock markets.

Subscribe to Doll’s Deliberations Weekly Commentary Below!